ByGu Qingyang

The 48th ASEAN Summit comes at a moment of mounting global uncertainty. A sluggish economic recovery, persistent geopolitical tensions and the gradual fragmentation of the international system have elevated this meeting, being held in Cebu City, the Philippines, beyond routine diplomacy. It is, in effect, a test of whether regional cooperation can evolve from an efficiency-driven model toward one anchored in security and resilience.

As the world's fifth-largest economic bloc, ASEAN occupies a pivotal position in global supply chains and regional cooperation networks. Its strategic choices will shape not only its own trajectory but also regional stability and global economic expectations.

The most immediate pressure stems from the spillover effects of instability in the Middle East, particularly through energy markets. Although the conflict is geographically distant, its economic consequences are amplified in Asia. The region's concentration of manufacturing and its heavy dependence on imported energy have created structural vulnerabilities. Fluctuations in energy prices are rapidly transmitted through production systems, affecting industrial costs, inflation and ultimately social stability. What begins as a price shock can quickly escalate into a broader systemic risk.

Short-term emergency responses are no longer sufficient. ASEAN must use the summit to forge a shared understanding that goes beyond stabilizing current markets. The more urgent task is to develop long-term mechanisms capable of absorbing external shocks and managing structural risks. This requires not only policy coordination but also a shift in the underlying logic of regional cooperation.

At a deeper level, the global economic paradigm itself is undergoing transformation. For decades, globalization has been driven primarily by efficiency and cost optimization. Today, that model is giving way to a new phase increasingly defined by security considerations.

Energy routes, supply chains and financial systems are no longer treated as neutral market instruments but as strategic assets. As a result, reliance on market forces alone is insufficient to manage the rising uncertainty. Regional cooperation must therefore evolve from facilitating trade to safeguarding systemic stability.

ASEAN-led frameworks now face a new historical mandate. Existing arrangements such as ASEAN Plus Three (the cooperation framework comprising the 10 ASEAN member states plus China, Japan and South Korea) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, provide a solid institutional foundation for regional integration.

However, they were largely designed to promote trade liberalization and efficiency. Their capacity to address emerging challenges such as energy security and supply chain resilience is limited. The key question for this summit is whether ASEAN can lead a transition from supply chain integration to more secure and resilient supply systems.

In this transformation, cooperation between ASEAN and China will be central. China has long regarded ASEAN as a priority in its neighborhood diplomacy, and the two have developed deep and mutually reinforcing economic ties. Their relationship is increasingly defined not by the exchange of finished goods, but by the integration of production networks. ASEAN is emerging as a key manufacturing platform in the regional economy, while China provides critical machinery, intermediate goods and industrial capabilities.

This structural complementarity provides a strong foundation for building a more resilient regional framework. ASEAN's attractiveness as a destination for Chinese investment reflects its geographic proximity, institutional diversity and embeddedness in global trade networks. As trade and investment deepen, the basis is being laid for a shift from supply chain connectivity toward security-oriented interdependence.

The nature of cooperation itself is evolving. The earlier model, centered on cost efficiency and industrial relocation, is giving way to one focused on risk-sharing and system-building. This transition can be advanced along four key dimensions: diversifying energy supply and expanding renewable cooperation,strengthening embedded production networks,developing local currency settlement and regional liquidity support,and enhancing infrastructure connectivity to support a more resilient regional economic cycle.

At the core of this shift is a conceptual redefinition: Supply chain stability must be treated as a regional public good. China's comprehensive industrial system provides a foundation for stable supply, while ASEAN's strategic location positions it as a key hub linking regional and global markets. Through coordinated efforts, the region can move from dependence on single nodes toward a more resilient, network-based structure.

This process, however, does not unfold in a geopolitical vacuum. Strategic competition among major powers continues to shape the regional environment and may constrain cooperation. Yet history suggests that crises often serve as catalysts for deeper integration. The Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic each led to significant advances in regional cooperation. The current combination of energy and security challenges may similarly open a window for institutional innovation.

In this evolving landscape, ASEAN's role is indispensable. As the central platform for regional cooperation, it must uphold genuine multilateralism and defend an open, rules-based trading system, while leading efforts to upgrade regional frameworks toward greater resilience. By deepening coordination with China and other partners, ASEAN can enhance its capacity to manage risks while contributing to a more stable global environment.

The shift from supply chains to secure supply chains is not merely semantic; it reflects a fundamental reconfiguration of development logic. The 48th ASEAN Summit stands at this critical juncture. How the region responds will determine whether East Asia can continue to serve as one of the most dynamic and promising regions in the global economy.

Gu Qingyang is an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.